buy / sell / hold call with invalidation conditions · any listed symbol
The call, its components and its invalidation conditions
The call is a weighted composite of four components — trend, options skew, regime and anomaly. Each component's score and weight are listed below, with the conditions that would invalidate the call. Where the computation ran on a sealed price series, the call can be re-derived from that series. names the conditions that would flip its own answer. Every vote is shown below, with the sealed price history behind it where one exists.
AAPL● price basis sealed
BUY
conviction
high
composite +0.49 (BUY > +0.15 · SELL < −0.15)
data basisprice · realoptions · realregime · unavailableA component with no live input contributes zero to the composite; no value is substituted.
Components — score × weight
Trend & momentum+0.54 × 0.45
The chart reads up (Mildly constructive).
Options skew+1.00 × 0.25
Options show upside skew (risk-reversal +23.6pt), ±0.1% implied move.
Regime & crowdingabstained · weight 0.3, no score
No real positioning feeds for this name right now — the regime organ abstains rather than guess.
Each component scores from −1 (bearish) to +1 (bullish); the composite is the weighted sum: +0.49.
Bull case
Options show upside skew (risk-reversal +23.6pt), ±0.1% implied move.
Bear case
No real positioning feeds for this name right now — the regime organ abstains rather than guess.
Invalidation conditions
changes to SELL/HOLD if:
Options skew flips — the options skew swings the other way (risk-reversal crosses its baseline) — it is the call's biggest support (+0.25).
the recent unusual price action (34 flagged bars) resolves the other way — it is suppressing conviction right now.
If none of these triggers, the call stands.
⛓ sealed · sha256 dfc2419383c3da9ba2…
Price series: market bars, sealed to #8130fffc81830896. Re-derivation runs on this sealed series and is independent of the live price.
Re-derive recomputes the call from the parts above and checks it against the seal.
AtlasVector leans constructive (BUY) on AAPL with high conviction — a blend of the trend, options skew and regime, not a single number. Your decisions, your risk — the trend and the options skew read real, sealed market data; organs without real inputs abstain rather than guess.
The call is a weighted vote across 3 independent reads; right now the composite score is 0.493 (BUY above +0.15, SELL below −0.15). Conviction is high because that's how strongly the reads agree, dialed down by 34 recent unusual price bars.
Bull: Options show upside skew (risk-reversal +23.6pt), ±0.1% implied move. Bear: No real positioning feeds for this name right now — the regime organ abstains rather than guess.
→ The bull side wins, but not unanimously.
What would flip this call (self-falsification)
Options skew flips — the options skew swings the other way (risk-reversal crosses its baseline); the recent unusual price action (34 flagged bars) resolves the other way.
→ Flips to SELL/HOLD if the above triggers.
Reference — indicator definitions
Composite score
The weighted sum of every component's vote, from −1 (bearish) to +1 (bullish). Above +0.15 = BUY, below −0.15 = SELL, in between = HOLD.
Conviction
How much to trust the call — high when the components agree and recent price action is calm, low when they disagree or the tape is choppy.
Risk-reversal
The price of upside calls minus downside puts in implied-vol terms. Persistently negative for stocks; a big swing signals a shift in how the options market is positioned.
Self-falsification
AtlasVector stating, up front, the specific evidence that would make this call wrong — the opposite of a confident black box.
Regime
The cross-asset backdrop (risk-on vs risk-off) and how crowded the positioning is; a crowded trade has less fuel left.