Options-implied expected move through earnings

The move the options market prices through the next earnings report: the scheduled report date paired with the at-the-money implied volatility of the expiry that brackets it. Shown as the dollar and percent move, the expected range, and the event premium — how much richer that expiry's vol trades than the front expiry's vol carried to the same tenor. The expected move is not a directional indicator.

AAPLoptions-implied move through the next print · real-time

Next earnings

2026-11-02

21 days out · after the close

Implied move

±7.10%

±$24.22 on 2026-11-06

ATM IV · event

27.2%

25-day at-the-money vol

Event premium

+0.56pt

vs front vol at this tenor ±6.54%

$316.92spot $341.14$365.36

±1σ range under the lognormal convention implied volatility is quoted in: approximately 68% probability that the close lands inside it if that convention holds. No realized hit rate for this range is retained.

Prior prints — realized moves (implied-move history not retained)

Historical option chains are not archived; no prior implied move is available for comparison and no hit rate is computed. Realized move: the change in AAPL across the session that absorbed each prior print.

4 prior quarters are on the calendar for AAPL; none carries an announcement session, so the reaction day cannot be identified. Realized moves measurable: 0 of 4.

AAPL reports on 2026-11-02 (after the close), 21 days out. The expiry that spans the report (2026-11-06) is pricing an options-implied move of ±7.10% (±$24.22). Event premium: 0.56pt over the front expiry's vol (25.0%) carried to the same tenor (±6.54%). The front expiry's own ±1.80% is a 2-day move and is not the baseline; a move scales with √time, so the comparison is vol-to-vol at the bracket tenor. That gap is the event premium the market is paying for the print.

Implied move = spot × ATM implied vol × √(days/365) — the ±1σ priced into the expiry that brackets the earnings date. Event premium = bracket move − (front ATM vol × √(bracket days/365)): the front's vol carried to the bracket's tenor, re-derivable as bracket move × front vol ÷ bracket vol. Earnings date from the earnings calendar. The expected move is not a directional indicator.