Estimated price-outcome distribution at expiry

An estimated probability distribution, centered on the live spot and built from AAPL's own realized volatility (how much it has actually moved) — where it could sit at expiry given that, not a forecast. The volatility level is a realized-vol estimate and the skew shape is modeled — neither is market-implied. With the mean, mode and median, the probability above versus below spot, an arbitrage-free check, and notes on each figure.