Merger-arb spread, break probability and edge

For a pending deal: the gross spread earned if it closes, the annualized return, the downside if the deal breaks, and our model break probability against the market-implied one back-solved from the price — the gap between them is the edge. Plus the invalidation triggers that would say the thesis broke. AtlasVector runs this read only for a symbol with a real announced deal — it never fabricates a takeover.